By WILLIAM BOSTON and MATTHEW KARNITSCHNIG
BERLIN—The Socialist victory in France's presidential election is bolstering predictions that Europe's age of austerity will soon come to an end. Don't count on it.
By the time the election-night confetti is swept up, what some hoped would herald a sea change in the direction of European policy will give way to the cold reality of crisis-era euro-zone politics: Berlin holds the Continent's purse strings.
As Europe's only healthy large economy, Germany's support would be essential for a change of course. But Chancellor Angela Merkel and her government, fearful of popular resistance in Germany, have made clear in recent weeks that they wouldn't soften their austerity demands, no matter who won Sunday's elections.
"We will remain as tough on these issues as before," said Volker Wissing, a financial-policy expert for the Free Democrats, the junior coalition partner in Ms. Merkel's government. "We are fighting for currency stability. There is no possibility to soften the currency with Germany."
Ms. Merkel and her hawkish allies at the European Central Bank remain firmly in control of European economic policy. And like Ms. Merkel, ECB President Mario Draghi and the influential Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann oppose any moderation of European structural reform, fiscal stimulus or the creation of euro bonds.
Yet Germany's hard line in the face of voter discontent could fuel a backlash in France and other corners of the euro zone, undermining efforts to preserve the euro. Before the debt crisis, few Europeans realized the degree to which they were sacrificing their national sovereignty by joining the euro. In Greece, Spain and other struggling countries, Berlin's growing political and economic influence over the past two years serves as a constant reminder of the increasing powerlessness of their own governments.
If, as expected, German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaüble takes over the leadership of the euro group, a key forum for shaping the euro zone's crisis response, Berlin's shadow over European politics will grow even longer.
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German officials already control other important levers in Europe's crisis-fighting framework, including its main bailout fund, the European Financial Stability Facility.
Germany isn't the only obstacle in the way of politicians' calls for a halt to Europe's belt tightening. Investors continue to question whether Europe can overcome its debt woes and keep its currency intact.
Turning away from austerity would likely trigger a further sell-off in credit markets, making it more expensive for governments to borrow money and placing their credit ratings at risk of further downgrades.
François Hollande, France's president-elect, has been cast by supporters as the champion for southern European countries whose economies are being strangled by Germany's austerity prescription.
Europe's realpolitik and pressure from financial markets help explain why Mr. Hollande has offered few specifics about how he would steer the euro-zone from away from policies focused on austerity to growth.
He has called for changing Europe's "fiscal compact"—the cornerstone of Ms. Merkel's policy in the fight to resolve the euro-zone debt crisis.
Instead, he would create an alternative "growth compact" that would somehow feed money into Europe's weakened economies.
Yet without substantial German support, such initiatives are likely to amount to little more than paper tigers.
If Mr. Hollande were to embark on a Keynesian stimulus program, financial markets would likely lose confidence in France's commitment to fiscal discipline. France's credit rating—key to keeping its cost of borrowing down—would be at risk.
Mr. Hollande "will not get his maximal demands and overturn everything in Europe," said Joachim Scheide, chief economist at the Germany-based World Economy Institute.
Ms. Merkel, who supported Nicolas Sarkozy in the French election, has signaled that she would work to preserve the Franco-German partnership with Mr. Hollande. Germany and France are likely to conclude some kind of growth pact that allows Mr. Hollande to save face but won't threaten to derail Ms. Merkel's European policy, analysts say.
Germany's resistance to common European bonds—a popular idea among Europe's center-left—is unlikely to soften. Berlin worries that such a move, which would effectively force Germany to guarantee the debt of its neighbors, would put Germany's own stability at risk
"Introducing euro bonds would mean to test the fiscal space of Germany and others, especially the triple-A countries," Germany's deputy finance minister Thomas Steffen said recently.
"To test the markets and refinancing ability of Germany and other countries in the euro zone would be the wrong way forward."
—Andreas Kissler and Beate Preuschoff in Berlin contributed to this article.Write to William Boston at william.boston@dowjones.com and Matthew Karnitschnig at matthew.karnitschnig@wsj.com
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